Sarah Bruce
12/4/07
The Kathmandu
Valley Faces the Constant Terror of Earthquakes
One important climatic feature that plagues the South Asian region of the Kathmandu Valley is earthquakes. A few severe earthquakes have taken place in the countryÕs history and caused many deaths and nearly irreparable damage to impoverished Nepal. The residents of the Kathmandu Valley experience small tremors nearly every day, whether they can feel them or not. The world and the nation is waiting for the Ònext big oneÓ to terrorize the small country.
The Kingdom of Nepal is a landlocked nation that geographically lies between India and China. The narrow country also located at the boundary between the Indian and Tibetan tectonic plates and is thus extremely susceptible to earthquakes.[1] The entire kingdom falls into highly seismic zones, including the mountains. The Himalayan mountain range was even formed by the collision of the Asian and Indian plates that started about 50 million years ago, and ended with the subduction of the Indian plate underneath Tibet.[2]
The Universities of Alaska and Colorado, in order to help these poor nations, have made precise measurements in both the Nepal Himalayan range and Tibetan Plateau since March of 1991.[3] The researchers have discovered that the Indian plate moves 53-63 millimeters closer to Asia at the same time as Tibet moves the same direction by 34-39 millimeters each year.[4] Therefore, Nepal is rowed about 19-24 millimeters per year.[5] As these steady movements have continued throughout the years, and slip events have also occurred causing great earthquakes on a north-sloping surface underneath the Himalayan mountains.[6] And as lakes long ago occupied the Kathmandu Valley, the contents of the soil today are prone to liquefaction, which is a large problem to everything built in the valley.[7]
Over 11,000 people have lost their lives in major earthquakes in Nepal in this century alone,[8] and seismic records of the country extend back to 1255.[9] The significant earthquakes that have occurred more recently shook Nepal in 1810, 1833, 1866, and the most devastating and most recent in 1934.[10] All of these earthquakes were of a similar size.
The earthquake of 1255 was reported to have destroyed many houses and temples, and to have killed one third to one fourth of the population of the Kathmandu Valley.[11] In 1407, an earthquake destroyed the famous Machhhendra Nath Temple of Patan. The two strongest earthquakes in the nationÕs history were the ones that took place in 1833 and 1934. The earthquake of 1833 destroyed the Kathmandu Valley and its magnitude was reported to have been a 7.8 on the Richter scale.[12] The people of Nepal were fortunate however, that it was preceded by two large foreshocks, and due to the warnings, the casualties were minimal and reported to be less than 500 people.[13]
The residents of the Kathmandu Valley were not as fortunate in 1934. The Bihlar-Nepal Earthquake is the most devastating in the nationÕs history. It reached a measurement of 8.0 on the Richter scale and the rupture length is estimated to be between 100 and 200 kilometers.[14] It produced strong shaking in the valley, which is the political, economical, and cultural capital of the country. Of the buildings located here, 20 percent were destroyed and 40 percent were severely damaged.[15] In the entirety of Kathmandu, one quarter of all of the homes were destroyed along with multiple historical sites.[16] The casualties produced by this earthquake were over 16,000 people including the regions of Nepal and India together.[17] Specifically in Nepal, the death toll reached 8,519 people. Below is a map showing the strength of the 1934 earthquake and itÕs origin. The warmer colors are higher on the Richter scale.
This pattern laid out by the seismic records beginning in 1255 suggests that the Kingdom of Nepal is indeed in for a larger, stronger, more devastating earthquake. The pattern shows that approximately every 75 years, the plates slide and produce a powerful earthquake rating upwards of a 7.0 on the Richter scale.[18] The concern in Nepal today is that since 1934, the population has more than quadrupled with 2.5 million people in Nepal and 1.5 million in the Kathmandu Valley alone. This makes the valley with one of the highest urban densities in the world as it grows at a rate of 6.5 percent.[19] Nepal is also among the poorest and least developed countries in the world. It has a weak economy, a high rate of poverty, and lacks government funding.[20] Simply put, the damage of the next earthquake, no matter its size could be more than devastating to this small, but culturally rich nation.
Today, this lack of preparedness is the primary danger for Nepal. The most recent earthquake occurred in 1988. Earthquake Udayapur was both a good thing and a bad one. It was good because the damage in the valley and 721 lives that were lost is minimal compared to the stronger earthquakes of the past. It was bad because it was too small to be one of the larger earthquakes that occur every 75 years and thus the valley still lives in fear.[21] Another positive it that it was a wake-up call to both the country of Nepal and the institutions of global aid around the world.
Earthquake Udayapur brought to light the fact that, despite the seismic history of the region, there were no earthquake risk management efforts in place.[22] As this earthquake brought the current issue to light, initiatives have since been implemented. The National Society for Earthquake Technology- Nepal (NSET) has been productive in its contribution to spreading earthquake awareness to the general population as well as authorities.[23] Factions of NSET include the School Earthquake Safety Program which is in the process of reconstructing school buildings and educating children on earthquake safety; the Initiative to set up Pre-Positioned Emergency Rescue Stores (PPERS) to help assist in immediate response; and finally Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Preparedness Initiative (KVEPI) which predicts the damage and lays a plan to help prevent as much as possible.[24] Hopefully, with the latest knowledge and global aid, the people of Nepal will minimize the effects of and survive the Ònext big one.Ó